Systems Thinking and the Denial of Death

Failures are still coming even once you learn how to understand them

context: A multiyear project of mine is on the rocks. I used lots of complexity theory, strategy, and systems-thinking to set it up to succeed as best I could. Maybe it still works in the end, but for now, I’m facing the death of it.

There are past masters to learn from about this: In "The Denial of Death" Ernest Becker argues that humans are fundamentally terrified of their own mortality. To cope with this fear, we create "immortality projects," symbolic ways to transcend our physical limitations and leave a lasting mark on the world, often through cultural achievements, adherence to belief systems, or the pursuit of legacy. However, these projects can lead to conflict and violence when threatened, and true freedom comes from accepting our mortality and finding meaning in the present moment.

We may think we are modern and past this, but the metaphors in modern life are mostly everywhere.

Example 1: The Financial Analyst & Market Crashes

Imagine a financial analyst who experienced significant losses during the 2008 financial crisis. This "death" of their financial stability and the perceived failure of their predictive abilities drives them to delve deep into systems thinking. They study economics, complex systems theory, network analysis, and even psychology to understand the intricate web of factors that led to the crash. They build elaborate models, identify feedback loops, and become adept at recognizing early warning signs. This knowledge grants them a sense of control and the belief that they can now navigate future market turbulence. However, despite their sophisticated understanding, they may still be blindsided by an unexpected "black swan" event triggered by factors beyond their model, like a global pandemic or a sudden geopolitical crisis. The "death" of their portfolio, in some form, remains a possibility despite their intellectual efforts.

Example 2: The Social Activist & Political Movements

Consider a social activist deeply affected by the failure of a movement they passionately supported. This "death" of their hopes for social change pushes them to adopt a complexity lens. They study social dynamics, power structures, historical patterns, and the interplay of individual and collective agency. They become skilled at identifying leverage points, understanding emergent behavior, and predicting potential obstacles. This knowledge fuels their activism, giving them a sense of purpose and the belief that they can now effectively contribute to lasting change. Yet, despite their deep understanding of social systems, they may still witness the "death" of their efforts due to unforeseen events, shifting public opinion, or the emergence of counter-movements fueled by complex factors beyond their immediate control.

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For the overthinker (it’s me, I’m the problem), grappling with past failures and the inherent uncertainty of the future, systems and complexity thinking become a seductive form of intellectual immortality. It's a quest to transcend the limitations of individual experience by understanding the intricate web of interconnectedness that governs events. By mapping the underlying patterns and feedback loops that shape reality, the overthinker seeks mastery over the unpredictable, hoping to anticipate and avoid future "deaths" – be they personal setbacks, professional failures, or societal collapses. This pursuit of knowledge offers an illusion of control, a sense of agency in a world often perceived as chaotic and unforgiving.

However, this intellectual immortality project, while offering solace and a sense of purpose, ultimately falls short of its grand ambition. True immortality remains elusive; the deaths, in their various forms, will inevitably come. The intricate systems we strive to understand always contain layers of complexity beyond our grasp, unpredictable variables and emergent phenomena that defy even the most sophisticated models. At best, systems thinking allows us to understand the how and the why of these inevitable "deaths," offering a degree of acceptance and perhaps even wisdom, but it cannot ultimately prevent them. The overthinker, despite their (my) best efforts, must still confront the fundamental reality of their own limitations and mortality.

All this is to say, I hope this 2+ year project works out, but it likely won’t. And I need to learn to live with that (for the 7th such time in my short career).